Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now

[showmeyourroi]

I created this new thread because I got many complains the old one was to complex.

You can find it here:

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=758923

Please read the old thread for further explanations.

I will only write down the score to bet, the games and the stakes. Later on I will add the odds for the games.

All Correct Score bets are on the big betting exchange. Other bets will be on a small pool of traditionell bookmakers.

Some notices about the stakes to bet:
- One unit is the standard bet. For the tracking it equals 10 € / $ / £ .
- There will be half unit bets or even third or quarter bets for very high odds or more than one bet on a game.
- There will be bets with two unit or even more on very rentabel systems or when its not a correct score bet, f.e. a simple draw bet.

Another important thing: I will set two categoeries for tracking now. Normal picks, now named "European Picks" are based on systems which used the data of several different european leagues (up to 30 leagues). The other picks will be league specific, which means the system is only created for this league.

So far there were nearly only be "normal" picks, in the future there will be more and more league specific system - if they work nearly as good as the european systems...

The record @ 2010-03-16 19:00 CET is:

European Picks (EP):
645 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 533.88 after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
30 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 30 after 5.0 % commision

Picks for today will follow in a few minutes

 

[showmeyourroi]

European Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit (10 Euro)
Stockport - Oldham @ 10.50
Swansea - Westbrom @ 10.50

League Specific Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit
Sheffield United vs Blackpool @ 11.50
Reading vs Queens park @ 13.5
Preston Orth End - Sheffield Wed @ 12.0

GL for all who follow... may all the strikers have a bad day today

 

[cains]

Good idea with this thread sir.

And good luck. Im trying to tail you all the way now. So if it goes all tit up now, just blame me.. Its normal when i start follow others.. ^<<^

 

[Dr.Pepper]

Just for clarification. The 0-0 above each set of picks is your predicted score, right? So for the above picks, your system had them all at 0-0's.

 

[TheSaint]

reading got a '85 penalty to fuck up the 0-0 draw..bad luck!

 

[showmeyourroi]

Yes these games were all 0-0 picks.

Today a loosing day, with some bad luck:

European Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit (10 Euro)
- 10 Stockport - Oldham @ 10.50 - result: 0-1
- 10 Swansea - Westbrom @ 10.50 - result: 0-2 (two late goals)

League Specific Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit
- 10 Sheffield United vs Blackpool @ 11.50 - result: 3-0
- 10 Reading vs Queens park @ 13.5 - result: 1-0 (85th minute)
- 10 Preston Orth End - Sheffield Wed @ 12.0 - result: 2-2

New record:

European Picks (EP):
665 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 513.88 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
50 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 50 € after 5.0 % commision

 

[showmeyourroi]

Picks based on league specific systems:

0-0 --- 1 Unit
Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5

Newcastle - Scunthorpe
0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34
0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22
Away = 0,5 Units @ 12

 

[showmeyourroi]

adding for newcastle game:
0,5 untis any unquoted @ 4.5

 

[showmeyourroi]

0-0 --- 1 Unit
Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5 result: 2-0

Newcastle - Scunthorpe result: 3-0
0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34
0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22
Any Unquoted = 0,5 @ 4.5
Away = 0,5 Units @ 12

New record:

European Picks (EP):
665 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 513.88 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
75 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 75 € after 5.0 % commision

 

[showmeyourroi]

Since I was not happy about the late goals at the 0-0 picks I checked out how many 0-0 picks had at 0-0 at half time. There were 36 0-0 picks so far which which result 17 times 0-0 at half time. The real odds (after commision) at Betfair are slightly above 3.0 as could see so far, maybe around 3.20 in the middle. With the strike rate of so far of 47.22 % this would have been a yield of 50 % so far with flat betting.

The new system is quite simple: every game which is a 0-0 full time bet is also a half time 0-0 bet.

The tracking will be on one side the "normal betting" with different stakes and the on the other hand a chasing system with two stages.

Example with 3.20 Betfair / 3.10 real odds to win 50 €
A: risk 23.25 to win 50.00
B: risk 34.07 to win 73.25 (- 23.25 of A = 50.00)

If two bets in a row are lost its a total loss of 57.32 in this example. At a strike rate of 45% 0-0 at half time a lost serie should be the case in 30 %. In the other 70 % it would be a profit of 50 € .

3 * - 57.32 = - 172 €
7 * + 50.00 = + 350 €
= + 178

There will be several series at one time with different starting stakes like on the normal betting systems.

I dont like to chase more than two stages because I think its just too much stress for the mind having too much on one bet, even its more profit in the long term.

Lets see how it will work out.

 

[showmeyourroi]

European systems:


0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units
0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit
1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units

0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units
2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units


Picks based on league specific systems:

0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units

2-1 - Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit
2-1 - Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit
2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units
2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units

Half Time 0-0 Picks:

Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units

Other Correct Score Half Time Markets are not avaible for fridays games on bf.

 

[showmeyourroi]

European systems:


--- 0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units @ 10.0 --- result:
--- 0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit @ 8.40 --- result:
--- 1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units @ 8.80 + 10.0 --- result:

- 15 --- 0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units @ 8.60 --- result:
--- 2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units @ 10.50


Picks based on league specific systems:

- 20 --- 0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units --- result:

--- 2-1 Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit @ 10.5 --- result:
--- 2-1 Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit @ 10.0 --- result:
--- 2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units @ 13.5 + 13.0 --- result:
--- 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 @ 11.0 + 10.0 + 12.5 units --- result:

Half Time 0-0 Picks:

- 40 --- Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units @ 3.05 --- result:

 

[showmeyourroi]

Today another winning day

Total risk of 195 € and a payout of 268.54 € which is a profit of + 73.54 € (Yield 38 %)


European Picks systems:

- 15 --- 0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units @ 10.0 --- result: 3-1
- 7.5 --- 0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit @ 8.40 --- result: 2-1
+ 64.60 --- 1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units @ 8.80 + 10.0 --- result: 1-0

- 15 --- 0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units @ 8.60 --- result:
- 20--- 2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units @ 10.50 --- result: 4-1

---

Total Today EuropeanPicks:
Risk: 77.50
Payout: 84.60
Profit: + 7.10

Picks based on league specific systems:

- 20 --- 0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units --- result: 2-0

- 10 --- 2-1 Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit @ 10.5 --- result: 1-0
- 10 --- 2-1 Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit @ 10.0 --- result: 1-2
+ 78.75 --- 2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units @ 13.5 + 13.0 --- result: 2-1
+ 67.69 --- 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 @ 11.0 + 10.0 + 12.5 units --- result: 0-1

Total Today LeagueSpecificPicks:
Risk: 77.50
Payout: 183.94
Profit: + 106.44


Half Time 0-0 Picks:

- 40 --- Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units @ 3.05 --- half time result: 1-0

Risk: 40
Payout: 0
Profit: -40

Around 40 Picks for tommorow for the different systems later this evening.

 

[showmeyourroi]

New record:

European Picks (EP):
742.50 € risked
1293.48 € payout
---
+ 550.98 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
152.50 € risked
183.94 € payout
---
+ 31.44 € after 5.0 % commision

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):
40 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 40 € after 5.0 % commision

 

[showmeyourroi]

Okay guys, I shortened it down to around 20 games for this saturday; I had many more but I think only few want to have an endless list of small bets...

Also forget about the chasing system for the 0-0 Half Time system at first. I want to keep it as simple as possible.

Here is what I got. The odds will come tommorow.

European systems:

Bet: 1-0 + 2-1 --- Game: Aberdeen - Dundee --- 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds:
Bet: 0-1 --- Game: Freiburg - Mainz --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Hamilton Aca. - Falkrik --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Zaglebie Lubin - Polonia Warsaw --- 1,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Grenoble Foot - Monaco --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm (Solna) --- 0,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Stade Rennes - Toulouse --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Scunthorpe - Plymouth --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Darlington - Barnet --- 1,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Wycombe - Exeter --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Torquay - Lincoln --- 1 unit --- odd:

Picks based on league specific systems:

Bet: 0-0 + 1-1 --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 2 units + 1 unit --- odds:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Nottingham - Peterborough --- 1,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Silkeborg - Midtjylland --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 0,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Auxerre - Le Mans --- 1,5 unit --- odd:

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):

Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 4 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 3 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 2,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 1 unit --- odd:

 

[cains]

Of course it was a winning Day yesterday. Couse i had overtime on my job so didnt get home in time to play any of it

 

[showmeyourroi]

yor really should the "movie" bleep. your beliefs control your life...

 

[showmeyourroi]

- Added odds

European systems:

Bet: 1-0 + 2-1 --- Game: Aberdeen - Dundee --- 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odd: 10 + 12.5
Bet: 0-1 --- Game: Freiburg - Mainz --- 1 unit --- odd: 10.5
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Hamilton Aca. - Falkrik --- 2 units --- odd: 12.0
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Zaglebie Lubin - Polonia Warsaw --- 1,5 units --- odd: 10.5
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Grenoble Foot - Monaco --- 2 units --- odd: 15
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm (Solna) --- 0,5 units --- odd: 40
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Stade Rennes - Toulouse --- 2 units --- odd: 10.0
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 1 unit --- odd: 11
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 2 units --- odd: 12.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Scunthorpe - Plymouth --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.0
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Darlington - Barnet --- 1,5 units --- odd: 13.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Wycombe - Exeter --- 1 unit --- odd: 11.0
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Torquay - Lincoln --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5


Picks based on league specific systems:

Bet: 0-0 + 1-1 --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 2 units + 1 unit --- odds: 11.5 + 7.4
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Nottingham - Peterborough --- 1,5 units --- odd: 7.6
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Silkeborg - Midtjylland --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: West Brom - Preston North End --- 0,5 units --- odd: 19
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Auxerre - Le Mans --- 1,5 unit --- odd: 10.5

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):

Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 4 units --- odd: 2.86
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 3 units --- odd: 3.05
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 2,5 units --- odd: 3.05
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 2 units --- odd: 3.0
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 1 unit --- odd: 3.8

 

[showmeyourroi]

another winning day with a + of around 60 € (15 % Yield) - details later

 

[cains]

Nice sir...

When do you think you will have tomorrows games up ?? Will it be later tonight?